100% Chance of Dependence: Why the National Weather Service is the backbone of your forecast.
In this day and age, people get their forecasts from a wide variety of sources. Weather apps, local news stations, and social media are just a few of the many platforms you and I can use to check the weather. What you may not realize, though, is that all of these sources rely on one fundamental organization: the National Weather Service.
The National Weather Service (NWS) is a federal agency that operates under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Founded in 1870, the NWS is responsible for forecasting and monitoring weather conditions across the United States. They are also responsible for issuing watches and warnings during severe weather; every watch or warning you have ever received was issued by the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service also collects vast amounts of atmospheric data. The NWS owns or operates:
18 Weather Satellites
92 Weather Balloon Launch Sites
160 Weather Radar Systems
9,000 Weather Monitoring Stations
Global and Regional Forecast Models
Once collected, this data is then made available to the public. The cost to the individual is a little under 4 taxpayer dollars annually, with a return on investment of 73:1. The National Weather Service saves the economy an estimated $102.1 billion each year, a pretty good bang for your buck if you ask me!
But why do I need the National Weather Service if I have my weather app?
If you aren’t a weather nerd like me, this is a completely understandable question to ask. The average person isn’t going to the National Weather Service website every day and combing through data. So why is it important to you?
Because the entire private sector of meteorology relies on the data collected and distributed by the National Weather Service.
The Weather Channel gets its data from the NWS.
AccuWeather gets its data from the NWS.
Apple Weather gets its data from the NWS.
*Insert any weather app in the market* gets its data from the NWS.
What about my local news station?
To start off, I just want to say that I am a big fan of broadcast meteorologists. Some of my biggest role models are meteorologists in the TV industry! James Spann is a name many of you may recognize. He’s the chief meteorologist at WBMA in Birmingham, Alabama, and he also has a very active presence on social media. He’s a trusted and well respected weather forecaster to many across the United States, and widely regarded as the best in the industry.
If you’ve got someone like James Spann, why would you need the National Weather Service? Here’s what Mr. Spann had to say in a Facebook post earlier this week:
“Their [National Weather Service] surface and upper air observation networks along with computer models, radars, and satellites are critical for all meteorologists, including those of us in the private sector… If NWS products are reduced, we all suffer.”
Even James Spann gets his data from the National Weather Service.
The same goes for every news station in the country. Whoever your meteorologist is, whatever station they work for, they get their data from the National Weather Service.
What about my favorite social media meteorologist?
Hopefully, you’re thinking about me ;)
I’m just kidding, but what I’m not kidding about is the fact that social media is where many people get their weather information nowadays. There are a lot of people in this business! The creator with the most traction right now is Ryan Hall. Ryan has just shy of 2.5 million subscribers on YouTube. He live streams weather coverage and produces accurate and reliable forecast videos. I have watched him for years, and I know some of my friends and family have as well. When you’ve got an individual as skilled as Ryan Hall, why would you need the National Weather Service?
I hate to break it to you, but Ryan Hall gets his data from the National Weather Service too.
What these private organizations/people do is take the data provided by the National Weather Service and communicate it in a way that is understandable to the public. And that is great! The raw data as it’s available from the National Weather Service can be complicated for the average person to understand. Having people who can interpret this data, repackage it, and make it easily digestible to the layman is an absolutely critical service.
What I am not trying to do right now is talk down on the private sector of meteorology. The private sector serves a very important purpose, and is where I intend to pursue a career myself. What I am trying to do is point out how vital the National Weather Service is and how nothing in the private sector could function without it.
The danger of an underfunded, understaffed National Weather Service
This week, mass layoffs took place across the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, spurred on by the Department of Government Efficiency. NOAA is also bracing for a potential 30% cut in funding. I’m not here to make any kind of statement on the administration or on DOGE. What I’m here to do is tell you how this affects your access to accurate and reliable weather forecasts and warnings, and you’re free to draw whatever conclusion you would like.
The NWS was already considered understaffed. After the mass layoffs on Wednesday, 11 out of the 35 National Weather Service offices across the United States declared that they were now “critically” understaffed. The following offices are now asking for mutual aid from surrounding offices so that they can properly cover their warning areas:
- Cheyenne, Wyoming
- Goodland, Kansas
- Jackson, Kentucky
- Kansas City, Missouri
- Marquette, Michigan
- Omaha, Nebraska
- Rapid City, South Dakota
- Wichita, Kansas
- Denver, Colorado
- Sioux Falls, South Dakota
- Grand Forks, North Dakota
Having offices that are this understaffed is not just an inconvenience. It is a danger to the public. Think of National Weather Service meteorologists like air traffic controllers. During a tornado outbreak, meteorologists are responsible for doing real time radar analysis on all the storms in their warning area. Like air traffic controllers, meteorologists have to make quick judgements in high stakes scenarios. When you cut staff, fewer people are responsible for monitoring a large amount of airspace. Less meteorologists monitoring a region raises the likelihood of missed warnings and reduces the overall effectiveness of an office.
Less staffing also means less data collection, at least for the time being. The NWS announced that they are “indefinitely suspending weather balloon launches at Kotzebue, Alaska due to a lack of WFO staffing”. If staff and funding continue to be reduced, as is currently anticipated, we may see more NWS offices be forced to suspend their data collection.
NOAA leases set to be cancelled
Currently, two buildings occupied by NOAA are set to have their leases terminated. Like the layoffs, this is also a move from the Department of Government Efficiency. NOAA currently works out of over 600 buildings, so at a surface-level, losing two does not seem like a big deal.
Unfortunately, the two buildings in question are absolutely critical to the operations of the National Weather Service. Let’s talk about their functions:
Radar Operations Center in Norman, Oklahoma
This is the central hub for radar technicians. The NWS operates a system of 160 NEXRAD radars across the country. While some news stations and private companies own and operate their own radar, no company comes close to the infrastructure of the National Weather Service. When you use the radar on your weather app, that data is likely coming straight from the NEXRAD radar system. Keeping this system up and running is absolutely critical to the safety of the public.
Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, Maryland
This building is the lifeblood of the National Weather Service. This building is home to the supercomputers that run our numerical prediction models. Specifically, this building houses the:
- GFS
- HRRR
- SREF
- RAP
In order to create a weather forecast, meteorologists have to analyze the data outputs from these models. I personally use the GFS and HRRR every single time I write a forecast. This is also the center of meteorology research in the United States. As someone who wants to go into research meteorology, my biggest dream would have been to work here.
Terminating this lease is not just short sighted. It is the blind swing of an axe with no care as to where it lands. Unless this decision is reversed, it has landed in the beating heart of the National Weather Service.
Any relocation efforts need to be very carefully planned out. These supercomputers are not easily relocated, and ANY period of time without access to this data would be devastating. The accuracy of your forecast is 100% dependent on our access to these models.
There has been lots of outcry from meteorologists in all sectors, so it’s my hope that this decision will be reversed. I’m all for cutting wasteful government spending; however, the National Weather Service needs to be approached by a scalpel, not a chainsaw.
The dangers of a privatized National Weather Service
I have had several people ask me how I feel about a privatized and commercialized National Weather Service. While this may be the first you’re hearing about this, it is not a new conversation.
In 2005, Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) introduced a bill entitled “The National Weather Service Duties Act”. The goal of the bill was to limit the National Weather Service’s distribution of free weather data. Then, private companies could buy this information from the NWS and sell their forecasts to the general public. The bill barely had any chance to breathe. It failed to get any senate cosponsors and therefore died in the committee.
Now, 20 years later, this idea is resurfacing. Thomas F. Gilman was nominated to serve as the Chief Financial Officer and Assistant Secretary of Administration for the U.S. Department of Commerce during Donald Trump’s first term as president. He is the author of the following statement:
“Each day, Americans rely on weather forecasts and warnings provided by local radio stations and colleges that are produced not by the NWS, but by private companies such as AccuWeather. Studies have found that the forecasts and warnings provided by the private companies are more reliable than those provided by the NWS. The NWS provides data the private companies use and should focus on its data-gathering services. Because private companies rely on these data, the NWS should fully commercialize its forecasting operations. "
Although Gilman is not currently part of the Trump administration, his sentiments on NOAA and the privatization and commercialization of the NWS are shared by several, mainly conservative, lawmakers.
I want to make it clear right now that my intent is not to attack a person, party, or administration. My intent is to attack the idea that has been proposed. I really don’t think weather forecasting should be a partisan issue, and I think many people share that sentiment.
Prioritizing Profit over People
As mentioned earlier, you spend 4 taxpayer dollars a year on the National Weather Service. In return, you have access to all of the atmospheric data they collect. You can read their forecast discussions at any time, and you don’t have to pay for a subscription to receive any watches, warnings, or special weather statements.
If NWS data were to be put behind a paywall, it would create several significant issues.
Inequitable Access
Dixie Alley is one of the biggest tornado hotspots in the United States. It’s proximity to the Gulf of Mexico makes it a moisture hot spot, and some of our countries worst tornado outbreaks (ex. April 27, 2011) have taken place in this region.
Unfortunately, many of the states in this region are also among the poorest in the nation, with higher-than-average poverty rates across the board. Specifically, Mississippi and Alabama consistently rank among the lowest in the nation for median household income.
If NWS data becomes paywalled, some of these lower-income populations may not be able to afford accurate forecasts or emergency alerts. Privatizing the National Weather Service would exacerbate existing disparities and disproportionately affect communities already vulnerable to natural disasters. The current system ensures that everyone - regardless of income - gets equal access to life saving information.
Inconsistency
Currently, every single weather alert you get is issued by the National Weather Service. Your local news stations, streamers, or weather apps then communicate these warnings to you.
In a privatized NWS, private companies may be given the authority to issue their own watches and warnings. What happens, though, if these private companies disagree with one another?
If the Weather Channel issues a tornado warning, but AccuWeather doesn’t, which one would you listen to? And would you be willing to pay extra money for more accurate warnings?
AccuWeather, one of today’s leading private forecasting companies, is already testing this idea out. If you subscribe to AccuWeather Premium+, you’ll not only receive more detailed forecasts, but access to AccuWeather Emergency Alerts.
Basically, if the meteorologists at AccuWeather think that there’s a tornado, but no warning has been issued by the National Weather Service, AccuWeather will send an unofficial warning notification to its Premium+ members.
Although I have a few ethical issues with a system like this, I don’t think the concept is inherently bad. Everyone still has access to NWS alerts, AccuWeather is just taking it a step further. Where I would have a problem, though, would be if NWS alerts were no longer publicly accessible. If people start having to pay a private company for alerts, how much safer would they be on a Tier 1 subscription than they would a Tier 3?
While inconsistent warning issuance from company to company would be an issue, difference in forecasting would be as well. Right now, the National Weather Service issues what are called “Convective Outlooks”. They look like this:
Convective Outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center at the NWS
These convective outlooks are what people everywhere use to gauge the threat level posed by a storm system. If every private company was forecasting a different threat level, how would people know who to listen to?
A privatized system would result in disjointed, inconsistent weather forecasting. Organizations in every industry rely on accurate forecasts for daily decision making. Conflicting information would make this much more difficult.
Little incentive for research
The United States leads the world in meteorological research. Currently, the National Weather Service is able to invest in research without the pressure of turning a profit. Meteorology is one of the least developed sciences. That’s part of why I love it so much! There is a lot we don’t know, which means there’s a lot left for us to discover!
In order for a private company to succeed, it needs to make money. Because of this, many companies may focus on creating marketable, profitable services rather than new scientific research. While current weather forecasting is good, we have much room for improvement. That is impossible without proper investment in research.
Final Thoughts
Please don’t interpret this as me hating on the private sector. As mentioned earlier, we need the private sector. These organizations are doing lots of good, life saving work; however, they work best in conjunction with the National Weather Service. It is imperative that NWS data remains freely available to the public.
It is my firm belief that people have a right to their forecast. The National Weather Service provides equal access to life saving weather information, and we should all be fighting to protect that. Safety should not come with a price tag.
Thanks for reading all of this! I hope you learned something! If you have any questions, feel free to ask me. Stay weather savvy!
Sources
Bush, Evan. “Fired NOAA Workers Say Cuts Could Hinder Weather Forecasts and Programs to Keep People Safe.” NBCNews.Com, NBCUniversal News Group, 4 Mar. 2025, www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/noaa-workers-fired-weather-forecasts-programs-safety-rcna194568.
Dixon, P. Grady, et al. “Tornado Risk Analysis: Is Dixie Alley an Extension of Tornado Alley?” AMETSOC, American Meteorological Society, 1 Apr. 2011, journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/92/4/2010bams3102_1.xml.
Fathepure, Anusha. “Doge Cancels Lease for Norman Center Specializing in Weather Radar Improvements, Repair.” OU Daily, 3 Mar. 2025, www.oudaily.com/news/norman-weather-radar-operations-center-doge-cancels-lease/article_adb6c206-f884-11ef-adc2-9f7fdd77bfd6.html.
Freedman, Andrew. Doge Moves to Cancel NOAA Leases on Key Weather Buildings, www.axios.com/2025/03/03/doge-noaa-weather-building-leases-trump. Accessed 4 Mar. 2025.
US Department of Commerce, NOAA. “Mission.” National Weather Service, NOAA’s National Weather Service, 31 Oct. 2016, www.weather.gov/aprfc/Mission#:~:text=The%20National%20Weather%20Service%20(NWS,enhancement%20of%20the%20national%20economy.
